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What this means. A wallet put $50.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 25% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$50.0k
BUY No @ 25¢ · 196,181 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Sports
What happened
Wallet FullPicks1 took No (buy) for $50.0k at an average 25¢. At that price the market implied a 25% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $50.0k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 25¢ means
25%chance the market gave
+292American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 25¢
- Implied odds
- 25.5%
- As American odds
- +292 no vig
- Size
- $50.0k
- Placed
- May 13, 14:52 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 21, 11:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- FullPicks1
- Tx
- 0x229e9e20…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+59.3 pts
expected 0.4 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | LOW BUY No @ 25¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $1.50M 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | LOW BUY No @ 25¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $3.09M 6.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | LOW BUY No @ 26¢ | $10.4k | excluded |