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shark142

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +1.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -6.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.7 pts
Called / graded
4/9
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$850.6k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.5 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$36k
9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$66k$0$31k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? at 32¢) and the edge is -6.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 16% · n=1
20–40¢
50% vs 33% · n=4
40–60¢
0% vs 45% · n=1
60–80¢
67% vs 64% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$725.6k
Last 30 days −$870.5k · $35.08M volume · 43,548 trades · since Jan 09, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$5.70M
Open P&L · 4 positions
+$235
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
288d
1450 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports943.9+1.7 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersMED BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 64¢ $33.6k64% 13h agocalled
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group StageLOW BUY Anyones Legend @ 65¢ $20.9k65% 16h agomissed
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersLOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 63¢ $19.5k63% 17h agocalled
Flyers vs. SabresLOW BUY Flyers @ 35¢ $11.3k35% 2d agocalled
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-21?LOW BUY No @ 60¢ $25.4k60% 2d agoexcluded
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20?LOW BUY No @ 61¢ $22.4k61% 3d agoexcluded
Cardinals vs. RamsLOW BUY Cardinals @ 53¢ $10.4k53% 5d agoexcluded
Cardinals vs. RamsMED BUY Rams @ 78¢ $58.3k
2.6× usual
78% 5d agoexcluded
Steelers vs. BuccaneersLOW BUY Buccaneers @ 58¢ $14.1k58% 5d agoexcluded
Panthers vs. EaglesMED BUY Panthers @ 72¢ $31.1k72% 5d agoexcluded
Texans vs. JaguarsLOW BUY Texans @ 44¢ $18.2k44% 5d agoexcluded
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-18?LOW BUY No @ 34¢ $10.7k34% 6d agomissed
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-15?LOW BUY No @ 31¢ $11.2k31% 8d agomissed
49ers vs. SeahawksMED BUY 49ers @ 71¢ $31.2k71% 12d agoexcluded
49ers vs. SeahawksLOW BUY 49ers @ 46¢ $10.2k46% 12d agoexcluded
Chiefs vs. DolphinsMED BUY Dolphins @ 16¢ $26.4k16% 26d agomissed
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13?LOW BUY No @ 49¢ $26.1k49% 40d agoexcluded
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?LOW BUY No @ 45¢ $49.1k
2.2× usual
45% 45d agomissed
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group BLOW BUY Team Falcons @ 53¢ $23.4k53% 53d agoexcluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?LOW BUY No @ 53¢ $18.8k53% 120d agoexcluded
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?LOW BUY No @ 40¢ $29.6k40% 124d agoexcluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?LOW SELL No @ 37¢ $16.2k63% 126d agoexcluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?LOW BUY No @ 39¢ $16.0k39% 126d agoexcluded
Will England win on 2026-06-17?LOW SELL No @ 49¢ $10.7k51% 128d agoexcluded
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $38.9k0% 131d agoexcluded
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $39.7k0% 131d agoexcluded
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?LOW BUY No @ 26¢ $10.4k26% 163d agoexcluded
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14?LOW BUY No @ 59¢ $28.1k59% 192d agoexcluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?LOW BUY No @ 33¢ $23.7k33% 195d agoexcluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?LOW BUY No @ 32¢ $14.7k32% 196d agocalled
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ $30.0k22% 244d agoexcluded
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ $60.9k
2.7× usual
62% 244d agoexcluded
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?LOW SELL No @ 38¢ $11.7k62% 244d agoexcluded
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?LOW BUY No @ 55¢ $36.7k55% 248d agoexcluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28?LOW BUY No @ 35¢ $10.8k35% 268d agoexcluded

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