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+$125No · avg 75¢ → 76¢ · $19.0k−$88No · avg 33¢ → 32¢ · $5,714 · 0 proven with, 1 against+$36Dominick Reyes · avg 35¢ → 36¢ · $2,562
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +1.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -6.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+1.7 pts
Called / graded
4/9
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$850.6k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$36k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? at 32¢) and the edge is -6.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 16% · n=1
20–40¢
50% vs 33% · n=4
40–60¢
0% vs 45% · n=1
60–80¢
67% vs 64% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$725.6k
Last 30 days −$870.5k · $35.08M volume · 43,548 trades · since Jan 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$5.70M
Open P&L · 4 positions
+$235
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
288d
1450 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 4 | 3.9 | +1.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MED BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 64¢ | $33.6k | called | |
| LOW BUY Anyones Legend @ 65¢ | $20.9k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 63¢ | $19.5k | called | |
| LOW BUY Flyers @ 35¢ | $11.3k | called | |
| LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $25.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 61¢ | $22.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Cardinals @ 53¢ | $10.4k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Rams @ 78¢ | $58.3k 2.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Buccaneers @ 58¢ | $14.1k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Panthers @ 72¢ | $31.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Texans @ 44¢ | $18.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 34¢ | $10.7k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 31¢ | $11.2k | missed | |
| MED BUY 49ers @ 71¢ | $31.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY 49ers @ 46¢ | $10.2k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Dolphins @ 16¢ | $26.4k | missed | |
| LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $26.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 45¢ | $49.1k 2.2× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 53¢ | $23.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $18.8k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $29.6k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL No @ 37¢ | $16.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 39¢ | $16.0k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL No @ 49¢ | $10.7k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $38.9k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $39.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 26¢ | $10.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $28.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 33¢ | $23.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 32¢ | $14.7k | called | |
| MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ | $30.0k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $60.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW SELL No @ 38¢ | $11.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $36.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY No @ 35¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
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