Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$13
Return on staked
+1.5%
Bets
4/9 won
Edge vs price
+1.7 pts ±15.5
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 11, 06:13 EDTOct 23, 17:33 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 64¢ | called | 14h ago |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 65¢ | missed | 17h ago |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 63¢ | called | 18h ago |
| Flyers vs. Sabres | 35¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-18? | 34¢ | missed | 6d ago |
| Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-15? | 31¢ | missed | 8d ago |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | 16¢ | missed | 26d ago |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08? | 45¢ | missed | 45d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? | 32¢ | called | 196d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.