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+$111No · avg 92¢ → 97¢ · $2,135−$3No · avg 97.1¢ → 97¢ · $2,133+$11Yes · avg 95.9¢ → 96.4¢ · $2,073−$7No · avg 96¢ → 95.7¢ · $2,009−$33No · avg 96.5¢ → 95¢ · $1,994−$84No · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $1,956−$70No · avg 95.7¢ → 92.4¢ · $1,940−$2No · avg 97.9¢ → 97.8¢ · $1,075
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +8.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +1.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+8.3 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$242.8k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$32k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? at 64¢) and the edge is +1.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 6% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 40% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$71.4k
Last 30 days −$6,981 · $8.61M volume · 7,661 trades · since Oct 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$71.4k
Open P&L · 28 positions
−$82
Closed-position win rate
58%
285 closed
Wallet age · markets
752d
296 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -5.5 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +36.0 pts |
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.9 | +3.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW SELL Yes @ 60¢ | $11.5k | missed |
 Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 36¢ | $68.4k | called |
 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW SELL Iowa Hawkeyes @ 25¢ | $45.0k | called |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW SELL Iowa Hawkeyes @ 26¢ | $49.4k | called |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 97.5¢ | $40.9k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED SELL Yes @ 94.5¢ | $27.5k | missed |
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