dzmontana

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +20.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$31Yes · avg 25¢ → 51¢ · $61 Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?−$247Yes · avg 28¢ → 5.1¢ · $53 Netanyahu out by end of 2026?−$2Yes · avg 43¢ → 42¢ · $48 Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?−$11Yes · avg 23¢ → 14¢ · $19 Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?−$29Yes · avg 35¢ → 10¢ · $11 Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?−$27Yes · avg 9.2¢ → 2.4¢ · $9 Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?−$49Yes · avg 41¢ → 6¢ · $8 Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?−$12Yes · avg 17¢ → 7¢ · $8

Price-adjusted edge

+20.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$105.7k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$56.6k

Last 30 days −$32 · $2.39M volume · 640 trades · since Apr 05, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$68.6k

Open P&L · 28 positions

−$7,470

Closed-position win rate

41%

32 closed

Wallet age · markets

202d

60 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.8	+20.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$44.9k 2.5× usual	0%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 6¢	$13.6k	94%	147d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 25¢	$10.0k	25%	167d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢	$17.8k	80%	169d ago	called
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.2¢	$19.4k	2%	199d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$44.9k

LOW dzmontana · 129d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called

SELL Yes @ 6¢$13.6k

LOW dzmontana · 147d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed

BUY Yes @ 25¢$10.0k

LOW dzmontana · 167d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?called

SELL Yes @ 20¢$17.8k

LOW dzmontana · 169d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

SELL Yes @ 98.2¢$19.4k

LOW dzmontana · 199d ago

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