← Wallets
−$59Yes · avg 23¢ → 5.5¢ · $19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?excluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 6.7 wins, so it did -52.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-52.7 pts
Called / graded
2/9
Expected from price
6.7
Flagged volume
$1.48M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$477k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? at 88¢) and the edge is -60.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 5% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 66% · n=2
80–100¢
33% vs 89% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$420.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $14.84M volume · 6,804 trades · since Apr 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$369.4k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$50.2k
Closed-position win rate
83%
36 closed
Wallet age · markets
190d
— markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 9 | 2 | 6.7 | -52.7 pts |
History
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?excludedSELL No @ 99.3¢$79.4k
LOW EB99999 · 145d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?excludedSELL No @ 99.6¢$78.9k
LOW EB99999 · 162d ago
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