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+$158Raiders · avg 36¢ → 38¢ · $2,428+$10Tampa Bay Rays · avg 45¢ → 46¢ · $324
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +16.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+16.7 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$588.2k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$324.9k
Last 30 days −$7,371 · $20.05M volume · 19,620 trades · since Dec 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.35M
Open P&L · 249 positions
−$2.61M
Closed-position win rate
82%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
309d
748 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | +16.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Broncos vs. 49ers | LOW BUY 49ers @ 62¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | LOW BUY 49ers @ 60¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Steelers vs. Browns | LOW BUY Steelers @ 59¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
 Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $20.8k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 43¢ | $17.2k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | LOW BUY Cabo Verde @ 44¢ | $44.0k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | MED BUY Miami Marlins @ 56¢ | $75.6k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | MED BUY No @ 79¢ | $135.6k 8.2× usual |
excluded |
| New York Yankees vs. New York Mets | LOW BUY New York Yankees @ 47¢ | $23.5k | missed |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers | LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 51¢ | $12.0k | called |
 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY 76ers @ 38¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 40¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | MED BUY Pistons @ 60¢ | $46.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals | LOW BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 45¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
| Athletics vs. Texas Rangers | LOW BUY Texas Rangers @ 53¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 56¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres | LOW BUY Seattle Mariners @ 52¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
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