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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 5.1 wins, so it did -31.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-31.1 pts
Called / graded
2/10
Expected from price
5.1
Flagged volume
$1.43M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$28k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Raptors vs. Bulls at 67¢) and the edge is -38.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 31% · n=3
40–60¢
0% vs 51% · n=3
60–80¢
50% vs 66% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$75.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $60.14M volume · 39,830 trades · since Oct 31, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$10.83M
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$217.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
358d
2530 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 2 | 5.1 | -31.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 49¢ | $24.9k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 57¢ | $57.7k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
 Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs | LOW BUY MIBR @ 35¢ | $10.7k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 50¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $195.4k 7.9× usual |
called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 68¢ | $175.8k 7.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $57.2k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
 Golden Knights vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Ducks @ 50¢ | $20.3k | missed |
 Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 65¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 63¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 51¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 56¢ | $27.6k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? | MED BUY No @ 22¢ | $56.3k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | LOW SELL No @ 30¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | MED BUY No @ 31¢ | $50.0k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 44¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Lakers @ 60¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? | MED BUY No @ 45¢ | $65.7k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 76¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | MED BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $47.9k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Warriors @ 53¢ | $21.2k | excluded |
 LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner | LOW BUY JD Gaming @ 57¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 53¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | MED BUY No @ 33¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
 Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? | LOW BUY No @ 33¢ | $24.8k | missed |
| Raptors vs. Bulls | LOW BUY Raptors @ 67¢ | $20.1k | called |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $55.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $12.1k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 52¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Fiziev @ 54¢ | $36.5k | excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? | LOW BUY No @ 25¢ | $13.3k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 74¢ | $22.8k | excluded |
 Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW SELL Patriots @ 99.9¢ | $30.1k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? | LOW BUY No @ 37¢ | $37.0k | excluded |
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