← Wallets
−$3,031No · avg 81¢ → 30¢ · $1,831+$513No · avg 65¢ → 92¢ · $1,746−$2,540Yes · avg 84¢ → 34¢ · $1,685−$3,861No · avg 73¢ → 22¢ · $1,602+$390No · avg 58¢ → 78¢ · $1,560+$104No · avg 89¢ → 96¢ · $1,439+$1,244No · avg 4.1¢ → 66¢ · $1,326−$901Yes · avg 24¢ → 14¢ · $1,177
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.8 wins, so it did +2.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+2.0 pts
Called / graded
5/9
Expected from price
4.8
Flagged volume
$1.25M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$82k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes at 55¢) and the edge is -3.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 8% · n=3
40–60¢
100% vs 55% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 72% · n=2
80–100¢
67% vs 87% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$125.0k
Last 30 days −$1,308 · $23.17M volume · 23,696 trades · since Dec 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$223.2k
Open P&L · 418 positions
−$201.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
321d
2672 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.3 | -8.5 pts |
| Other | 5 | 3 | 2.5 | +10.4 pts |
History
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