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What this means. A wallet put $19.9k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$19.9k
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ · 19,941 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet cripes3 took Yes (sell) for $19.9k at an average 99.8¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $19.9k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.8¢
- Implied odds
- 0.2%
- Size
- $19.9k
- Placed
- Mar 03, 19:48 EST
- Market close
- Feb 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- cripes3
- Tx
- 0x875bd524…
This wallet's graded record
5/9+2.0 pts
expected 4.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $55.4k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $41.5k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $27.3k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $26.7k | excluded |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $45.1k | excluded |