← Wallets
−$167Wizards · avg 53¢ → 48¢ · $1,446+$349Yes · avg 3¢ → 11¢ · $484+$67Yes · avg 4¢ → 5.5¢ · $247+$45Yes · avg 3.3¢ → 4.3¢ · $194−$276ers · avg 85¢ → 84¢ · $122
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 5.1 wins, so it did -1.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-1.2 pts
Called / graded
5/9
Expected from price
5.1
Flagged volume
$336.1k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$35k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Heat vs. Raptors at 50¢) and the edge is -7.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 28% · n=1
40–60¢
50% vs 52% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 77% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$31.6k
Last 30 days +$220 · $17.38M volume · 51,650 trades · since Sep 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 400 closed
+$138.9k
Open P&L · 5 positions
+$292
Closed-position win rate
100%
400 closed
Wallet age · markets
764d
1834 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 5 | 5.1 | -1.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Giants vs. Rams | LOW BUY Giants @ 28¢ | $21.6k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $19.2k | called |
 Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW SELL No @ 52¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY No @ 44¢ | $13.2k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ | $25.1k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $26.0k | called |
 Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW SELL Knicks @ 44¢ | $23.1k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 69¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 66¢ | $25.3k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $24.7k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 77¢ | $17.0k | called |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 86¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 76¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 55¢ | $10.7k | called |
| Heat vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 50¢ | $14.6k | called |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 93¢ | $12.6k | called |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 50¢ | $20.8k | missed |
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