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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -68.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-68.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$123.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±46.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$47.5k
Last 30 days +$5,660 · $10.91M volume · 7,205 trades · since Nov 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$799.6k
Open P&L · 211 positions
−$803.6k
Closed-position win rate
83%
264 closed
Wallet age · markets
752d
446 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -68.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 56¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 5.8¢ | $14.1k | missed |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 5.3¢ | $15.4k | called |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 5.3¢ | $16.2k | called |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 5.2¢ | $28.0k | missed |
 Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $39.2k 2.5× usual |
missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd12321…