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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -56.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-56.4 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$270.6k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$5,341
Last 30 days +$0 · $18.51M volume · 11,487 trades · since Feb 04, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$294.9k
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$287.1k
Closed-position win rate
52%
211 closed
Wallet age · markets
262d
227 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -60.3 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.1 | -54.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 43¢ | $36.0k 2.1× usual |
missed |
 Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina | LOW BUY Elena Rybakina @ 88¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $31.9k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Thunder @ 85¢ | $25.3k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 48¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
 Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic | LOW SELL Ben Shelton @ 60¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 32¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur | LOW BUY Alex de Minaur @ 66¢ | $18.9k | missed |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $59.4k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 40¢ | $11.1k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢ | $16.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $13.9k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xde9f03…