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−$1,267Ravens · avg 44¢ → 42¢ · $21.0k+$29No · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $79−$29Yes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $21
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did -0.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-0.2 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$1.20M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$41k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? at 22¢) and the edge is -15.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 22% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 48% · n=3
60–80¢
50% vs 68% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$531.5k
Last 30 days −$1,412 · $49.11M volume · 44,177 trades · since Nov 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 400 closed
−$8,055
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$1,267
Closed-position win rate
25%
400 closed
Wallet age · markets
718d
— markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | -26.0 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | +51.5 pts |
History
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