Weekly report card
Week 2026-25
Jun 15, 00:00 EDT – Jun 21, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-7.4 pts
Called
183/341
Expected from price
208.3
Std. error
±2.5
In week 2026-25, 341 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 183 times; entry prices implied 208.3. Whales did no better than the price (-7.4 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 299 | 157 | 182.2 | -8.4 pts |
| Other | 28 | 18 | 17.8 | +0.7 pts |
| Economy | 14 | 8 | 8.3 | -1.8 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $1.50M | missed |
 Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals | HIGH BUY Washington Nationals @ 57¢ | $625.1k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY No @ 52¢ | $515.4k 8.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $496.0k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $474.1k 5.2× usual |
called |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $458.9k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 91.5¢ | $414.4k | missed |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY No @ 45¢ | $367.1k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | HIGH BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $308.0k | missed |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY No @ 47¢ | $275.3k 5.2× usual |
called |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $264.9k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) | MED BUY Sweden @ 69¢ | $241.7k 9.8× usual |
missed |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY No @ 46¢ | $237.1k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $236.0k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $234.6k 7.1× usual |
called |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | MED BUY Cabo Verde @ 45¢ | $231.6k | called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $199.9k 4.6× usual |
called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 48¢ | $190.0k | called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $182.3k 6.3× usual |
missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $159.3k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $149.5k | missed |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $147.2k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $146.7k 7.9× usual |
called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $141.9k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $126.6k | called |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 96¢ | $124.8k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | HIGH BUY No @ 31¢ | $124.0k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $119.5k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $117.7k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $115.8k 2.8× usual |
called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $114.3k 2.6× usual |
called |
 Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz | MED BUY Alexander Zverev @ 55¢ | $110.0k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz | MED BUY Alexander Zverev @ 56¢ | $107.8k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 40¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $100.0k | called |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | MED BUY No @ 85¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $99.0k 3.4× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $96.3k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 40¢ | $96.0k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $94.4k 4.2× usual |
called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $94.1k 3.8× usual |
called |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $94.1k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 65¢ | $92.2k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $90.0k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $86.9k 4.1× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $84.0k | called |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $82.9k | called |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $76.2k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $75.0k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $73.4k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY No @ 33¢ | $70.0k | missed |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY No @ 49¢ | $66.7k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $66.3k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY No @ 33¢ | $66.0k | called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $64.4k | called |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $61.0k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $60.8k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY No @ 45¢ | $60.4k | called |
 Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | MED BUY BetBoom Team @ 45¢ | $60.0k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $60.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90.5¢ | $60.0k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $59.1k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $57.0k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 77¢ | $56.2k 4.0× usual |
missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $54.4k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $54.4k | called |
| England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 47¢ | $54.3k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $54.0k | called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $52.7k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $51.9k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $51.6k | missed |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $51.1k | missed |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | LOW BUY Spain @ 55¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $49.2k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW SELL No @ 41¢ | $47.8k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢ | $47.7k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $47.6k | missed |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $47.2k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $47.1k | called |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $46.6k | missed |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY No @ 34¢ | $45.5k 2.2× usual |
called |
| England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 53¢ | $44.6k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $44.1k | called |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $43.3k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $42.7k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $42.1k | called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $41.6k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $41.0k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $40.9k | called |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $40.6k | missed |
| Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 55¢ | $40.0k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $40.0k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $40.0k | called |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $39.7k 3.6× usual |
missed |
| Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $38.2k | called |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $38.1k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $38.0k | called |
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