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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -27.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-27.5 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$72.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$7,563
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.65M volume · 353 trades · since Jun 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$387.4k
Open P&L · 36 positions
−$389.6k
Closed-position win rate
83%
59 closed
Wallet age · markets
142d
85 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 1 | 2.1 | -27.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 53¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 51¢ | $11.9k | called |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $39.7k 3.6× usual |
missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $10.4k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3d85d4…