john928

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -10.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-10.0 pts

Called / graded

2/3

Expected from price

2.3

Flagged volume

$683.9k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$30.0k

Last 30 days +$0 · $3.58M volume · 154 trades · since Jun 08, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$69.5k

Open P&L · 1 positions

−$99.0k

Closed-position win rate

64%

11 closed

Wallet age · markets

138d

12 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	2	2.3	-10.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	MED BUY Yes @ 83¢	$99.0k	83%	122d ago	called
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 68¢	$295.3k 4.3× usual	68%	123d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	MED BUY Yes @ 83¢	$99.0k	83%	123d ago	missed
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	MED BUY Yes @ 64¢	$90.0k	64%	126d ago	called
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 7.3¢	$14.6k	93%	127d ago	called
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 12¢	$22.9k	12%	129d ago	missed
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	LOW SELL Yes @ 19¢	$14.3k	81%	129d ago	excluded
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$48.8k	77%	129d ago	missed

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?called

BUY Yes @ 83¢$99.0k

MED john928 · 122d ago

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?excluded

BUY Yes @ 68¢$295.3k

HIGH john928 · 123d ago

Will England win on 2026-06-23?missed

BUY Yes @ 83¢$99.0k

MED john928 · 123d ago

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?called

BUY Yes @ 64¢$90.0k

MED john928 · 126d ago

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 7.3¢$14.6k

LOW john928 · 127d ago

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 12¢$22.9k

MED john928 · 129d ago

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?excluded

SELL Yes @ 19¢$14.3k

LOW john928 · 129d ago

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?missed

BUY Yes @ 77¢$48.8k

LOW john928 · 129d ago

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