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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -8.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-8.0 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$240.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.27M
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.77M volume · 4,099 trades · since Jun 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.56M
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$282.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
17 closed
Wallet age · markets
136d
20 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 1.2 | -8.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 40¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 40¢ | $96.0k | missed |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 44¢ | $44.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x81da60…