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GCottrell93

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +48.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+48.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$1.16M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.4 pts std. error.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other221.0+48.5 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $100.0k85% 129d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $57.2k1% 194d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?MED SELL Yes @ 97.8¢ $293.0k
4.7× usual
2% 194d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ $113.0k68% 198d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 68¢ $39.2k68% 198d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ $19.7k18% 200d agocalled
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $66.5k83% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $92.4k89% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $47.5k95% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED BUY No @ 84¢ $99.5k84% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 76¢ $43.0k76% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $38.4k77% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED BUY No @ 73¢ $110.6k73% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $37.5k78% 247d agoexcluded

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