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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.1 wins, so it did -13.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-13.3 pts
Called / graded
3/8
Expected from price
4.1
Flagged volume
$352.8k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$13k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 16¢) and the edge is -27.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
33% vs 14% · n=3
20–40¢
0% vs 36% · n=1
60–80¢
50% vs 72% · n=2
80–100¢
50% vs 92% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$159.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.69M volume · 4,777 trades · since Dec 18, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$486.8k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$324.6k
Closed-position win rate
89%
37 closed
Wallet age · markets
310d
50 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 2 | 3.1 | -16.3 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 36¢ | $10.7k | missed |
 Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $26.6k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $29.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $38.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $33.5k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $51.6k | missed |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $11.4k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $16.5k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $16.7k | missed |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | LOW BUY No @ 92.2¢ | $14.9k | called |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $51.5k | excluded |
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