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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.3 wins, so it did +52.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +52.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+52.6 pts
Called / graded
7/7
Expected from price
3.3
Flagged volume
$936.4k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$1.0M7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Spain (-2.5) at 45¢) and the edge is +52.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 47% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.80M
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.94M volume · 962 trades · since Jun 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.15M
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$335.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
12 closed
Wallet age · markets
133d
19 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 7 | 3.3 | +52.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $87.1k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 49¢ | $184.8k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $62.0k | called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 48¢ | $190.0k | called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $33.6k | called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $147.2k | called |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | MED BUY Cabo Verde @ 45¢ | $231.6k | called |
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