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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +53.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+53.3 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$753.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$383.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.05M volume · 1,286 trades · since Jun 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.21M
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$819.0k
Closed-position win rate
90%
10 closed
Wallet age · markets
133d
17 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | +53.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MED BUY No @ 48¢ | $28.2k | called | |
| HIGH BUY No @ 45¢ | $367.1k 2.0× usual |
called | |
| MED BUY Spain @ 54¢ | $231.2k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Over @ 58¢ | $127.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x198a38…