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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +48.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +47.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+48.9 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$3.30M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$2.0M5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will United States win on 2026-06-12? at 46¢) and the edge is +47.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 48% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 64% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.26M
Last 30 days +$0 · $14.93M volume · 3,110 trades · since Jun 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4.13M
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$2.84M
Closed-position win rate
91%
11 closed
Wallet age · markets
134d
21 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 5 | 2.6 | +48.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $789.6k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $458.9k | called |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $324.0k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $1.09M 3.1× usual |
called |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 46¢ | $10.9k | called |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $59.1k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $185.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $383.0k | called |
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