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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did +42.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+42.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$1.13M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$444.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $9.80M volume · 2,906 trades · since Jun 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.32M
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$1.86M
Closed-position win rate
88%
8 closed
Wallet age · markets
131d
16 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | +42.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $500.0k | called |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $126.6k | called |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $486.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4c6a21…