Weekly report card

Week 2026-05

Jan 26, 00:00 EST – Feb 01, 23:59 EST · markets that resolved this week

← 2026-04 2026-06 →

Price-adjusted edge

+2.6 pts

Called

454/683

Expected from price

436.2

Std. error

±1.4

In week 2026-05, 683 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 454 times; entry prices implied 436.2. Whales beat the price by +2.6 pts. One week is a small sample.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	377	250	229.6	+5.4 pts
Economy	191	139	134.7	+2.3 pts
Sports	84	51	50.4	+0.7 pts
Crypto	31	14	21.5	-24.2 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	HIGH BUY No @ 78¢	$653.1k 12.7× usual	78%	Labtrador	282d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96¢	$437.0k 4.5× usual	96%	0xe639…082a	279d ago	called
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)	HIGH BUY Warriors @ 50¢	$296.7k	50%	0x4924…3782	270d ago	missed
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic	MED BUY Alcaraz @ 74¢	$242.6k	74%	Tiger200	265d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 80¢	$240.0k 6.4× usual	80%	Erasmus. PROVEN	285d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96¢	$206.6k 11.4× usual	96%	big.bitch	283d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 91¢	$189.6k 8.2× usual	91%	GoriIIa PROVEN	292d ago	called
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 34¢	$171.9k	34%	0x9165…5b98	271d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 95¢	$170.6k 6.9× usual	95%	0x4488…e319	280d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.1¢	$145.8k	96%	0xad96…d498	278d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 94¢	$118.1k 3.4× usual	94%	hild	273d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 89¢	$115.7k 2.9× usual	89%	0xdd54…b245	294d ago	called
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 92¢	$111.4k 2.2× usual	92%	JAHODA	289d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95¢	$111.1k	95%	0xe639…082a	281d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 89¢	$110.4k	89%	0xb9b6…630c	294d ago	called
Kings vs. Hurricanes	MED BUY Kings @ 39¢	$109.1k	39%	BWArmageddon	264d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.6¢	$100.6k	97%	0x3b8d…2ce6	287d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.9¢	$100.6k	96%	0xe639…082a	279d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 92¢	$100.5k 2.6× usual	92%	0xdd54…b245	289d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 95¢	$99.2k 2.4× usual	95%	How.Dare.You	296d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢	$99.1k	96%	0xad96…d498	278d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 80¢	$95.5k 4.1× usual	20%	anoin123	282d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢	$92.0k 2.3× usual	92%	0xdd54…b245	288d ago	called
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 95.6¢	$89.4k 3.9× usual	96%	GoriIIa PROVEN	288d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢	$89.0k 4.0× usual	89%	tutrucks	295d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.9¢	$84.5k	96%	Coram_Deo	283d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 97¢	$80.5k 3.2× usual	97%	SwissMiss LOSING	271d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$79.2k	90%	0x6b2c…5341	292d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 90.2¢	$79.0k 3.4× usual	90%	GoriIIa PROVEN	284d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 79¢	$79.0k	21%	SlavaUkraini	283d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.4¢	$78.3k	95%	0xe639…082a	280d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.6¢	$78.0k 2.4× usual	97%	wkmfa518	287d ago	called
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)	MED BUY Saint Denis @ 76¢	$77.7k	76%	0xd0b4…fed6	265d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91.9¢	$77.4k 3.0× usual	92%	SwissMiss LOSING	314d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.1¢	$77.3k	95%	0xdd54…b245	286d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97¢	$76.7k 2.3× usual	97%	fastviking	283d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢	$72.6k	96%	0x889e…09e0	278d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.1¢	$72.1k 3.7× usual	96%	Vilgefortz	287d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 76¢	$71.8k	76%	0xdd54…b245	312d ago	called
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 72¢	$71.6k	72%	BITCOINTO500K	264d ago	missed
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 69¢	$70.8k 2.5× usual	69%	Magamyman	282d ago	called
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28?	MED BUY No @ 41¢	$67.4k	41%	0xd0b4…fed6	269d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$65.1k	93%	0x57ee…ba2a	305d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$64.6k	87%	Alexparker	282d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 94.2¢	$64.6k 3.5× usual	94%	Aeglos	284d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$63.4k	90%	0x9f99…69e2	292d ago	called
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢	$62.9k	97%	scottxia1988	278d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 96.5¢	$61.8k 2.4× usual	97%	SwissMiss LOSING	291d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$61.1k	91%	Alexparker	281d ago	called
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 93¢	$60.8k	93%	DavidTrezeguet	288d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.6¢	$60.8k	96%	luciousleft	286d ago	called
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	MED BUY No @ 70¢	$60.2k	70%	tphhh	294d ago	called
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)	LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 58¢	$58.0k	58%	YT-JuicySlots	270d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$57.6k 2.3× usual	86%	SwissMiss LOSING	266d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 90¢	$57.6k	90%	0x57ee…ba2a	300d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$57.6k	95%	onekey09	276d ago	called
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?	MED BUY No @ 74¢	$56.7k 2.4× usual	74%	0x0154…15a8	275d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.3¢	$56.3k	93%	aenews2 LOSING	284d ago	called
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics	MED BUY Celtics @ 76¢	$56.0k 2.6× usual	76%	c4c4 PROVEN	270d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 96.4¢	$55.3k	96%	aff3 PROVEN	281d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 94.9¢	$55.1k	95%	Ronaldo2100	284d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 92.8¢	$54.9k 2.5× usual	93%	ScottyNooo PROVEN	266d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$53.9k 3.3× usual	77%	redvinny	315d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 89¢	$52.5k 2.7× usual	89%	0x17a8…e61f	293d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.3¢	$51.5k	93%	Labtrador	284d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$51.4k	90%	0x6b2c…5341	291d ago	called
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?	MED BUY No @ 74¢	$51.1k 2.1× usual	74%	0x0154…15a8	275d ago	missed
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev	LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 85¢	$51.0k	85%	degenfren	267d ago	called
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26?	LOW BUY No @ 66¢	$50.6k	66%	0x1222…2aa7	271d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 70¢	$50.0k 2.2× usual	70%	ololololololololo	282d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$50.0k 3.3× usual	95%	Occasionalbettor	288d ago	called
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic	MED BUY Djokovic @ 27¢	$48.6k	27%	Donghui	265d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢	$46.0k	92%	0xc2dc…9c9c	289d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 92¢	$46.0k	8%	0x7177…ddef	278d ago	missed
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$46.0k	90%	0xdd54…b245	290d ago	called
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 29¢	$45.8k	29%	Tiger200	272d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 33¢	$45.8k	33%	0x9636…b7b7	282d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢	$45.6k	76%	0x889e…09e0	268d ago	called
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 91¢	$45.5k	91%	wokerjoesleeper PROVEN	292d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 95.6¢	$45.3k	96%	aff3 PROVEN	280d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	MED BUY PARIVISION @ 50¢	$45.1k	50%	BITCOINTO500K	266d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 90¢	$45.0k	90%	0xc309…5ccf	291d ago	called
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	LOW BUY Anyones Legend @ 75¢	$45.0k	75%	0xd0b4…fed6	270d ago	called
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic	LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 74¢	$45.0k	74%	0x6863…79fb	265d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 90.6¢	$45.0k 2.1× usual	91%	TexMexTRex	300d ago	called
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	MED BUY Yes @ 68¢	$44.8k	68%	0x2d36…556d	282d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢	$44.5k	89%	0x6b2c…5341	294d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 65¢	$44.1k 2.8× usual	35%	tetrose	281d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.9¢	$43.2k	97%	elmcap2	287d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A	LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 51¢	$42.3k	51%	BITCOINTO500K	266d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$42.3k	88%	0x57ee…ba2a	301d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 96.1¢	$41.3k	4%	ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN	277d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 76¢	$41.1k	76%	Erasmus. PROVEN	286d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 51¢	$41.0k	51%	0x955c…990f	267d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 93.7¢	$41.0k	94%	Ronaldo2100	288d ago	called
Rangers vs. Islanders	LOW BUY Islanders @ 55¢	$40.7k	55%	YT-JuicySlots	268d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL No @ 32¢	$40.5k	68%	0x5465…5133	267d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 82¢	$40.1k	82%	0x59f1…a693	287d ago	called
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics	LOW BUY Celtics @ 73¢	$40.0k	73%	0x6e82…752c	270d ago	called
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic	LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 74¢	$39.8k	74%	gmpm	266d ago	called

Week 2026-05

By category

Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)

Biggest misses

Every graded flag

The graded brief, free