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+$1,135Yes · avg 82¢ → 92.8¢ · $9,666+$1,275No · avg 83¢ → 95.8¢ · $9,575+$831No · avg 83¢ → 96¢ · $6,220+$540No · avg 81¢ → 94.5¢ · $3,780+$405No · avg 78¢ → 91.5¢ · $2,745−$13.3kYes · avg 18¢ → 2.8¢ · $2,404+$107No · avg 83¢ → 97.8¢ · $710+$59No · avg 73¢ → 93.5¢ · $267
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+3.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$234.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$440.5k
Last 30 days −$1,252 · $2.88M volume · 2,641 trades · since Oct 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$125.8k
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$566.2k
Closed-position win rate
75%
64 closed
Wallet age · markets
361d
79 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $29.8k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | MED SELL No @ 88¢ | $37.0k | called |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $18.5k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $76.7k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $20.7k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $51.7k | excluded |
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