← Wallets
−$6Yes · avg 66¢ → 34¢ · $6
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.5 wins, so it did +9.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +9.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+9.6 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.5
Flagged volume
$1.01M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$25k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? at 89¢) and the edge is +9.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$30.7k
Last 30 days +$1 · $2.28M volume · 860 trades · since Nov 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$82.2k
Open P&L · 19 positions
−$42.7k
Closed-position win rate
79%
28 closed
Wallet age · markets
334d
46 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 5 | 5 | 4.5 | +9.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ | $184.2k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ | $98.2k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ | $198.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ | $297.6k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $18.4k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $33.6k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $51.4k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $79.2k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $44.5k | called |
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