Occasionalbettor

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$158Yes · avg 92.1¢ → 91.5¢ · $25.2k Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?−$1,085No · avg 95.4¢ → 80¢ · $5,750 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?+$299Yes · avg 92.3¢ → 98.2¢ · $5,004

Price-adjusted edge

+5.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$117.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$75.9k

Last 30 days −$1,928 · $4.95M volume · 4,541 trades · since Oct 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$75.9k

Open P&L · 3 positions

−$944

Closed-position win rate

94%

213 closed

Wallet age · markets

725d

216 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	1	0.9	+5.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$27.1k	99%	135d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$15.1k	99%	187d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.7¢	$14.7k	98%	276d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$50.0k 3.3× usual	95%	288d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92.6¢	$10.7k	93%	354d ago	excluded

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.3¢$27.1k

LOW Occasionalbettor · 135d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.3¢$15.1k

LOW Occasionalbettor · 187d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97.7¢$14.7k

LOW Occasionalbettor · 276d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95¢$50.0k

LOW Occasionalbettor · 288d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 92.6¢$10.7k

LOW Occasionalbettor · 354d ago

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