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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +5.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.1 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$572.5k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$205.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.71M volume · 2,303 trades · since Aug 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$205.3k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$121
Closed-position win rate
91%
47 closed
Wallet age · markets
792d
47 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 3 | 3 | 2.9 | +4.5 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ | $32.2k | excluded |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95.3¢ | $24.0k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95.6¢ | $19.7k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 95.6¢ | $60.8k | called |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $99.7k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $98.3k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ | $93.5k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ | $100.5k | excluded |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $43.9k | called |
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