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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did +3.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -5.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.1 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
2.8
Flagged volume
$1.47M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$8k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Kings vs. Golden Knights at 55¢) and the edge is -5.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 38% · n=3
40–60¢
100% vs 56% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$373.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $54.82M volume · 13,051 trades · since Jan 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.04M
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$2.42M
Closed-position win rate
53%
208 closed
Wallet age · markets
273d
221 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 2.8 | +3.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Senators vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 58¢ | $39.9k | excluded |
| Wild vs. Red Wings | MED SELL Wild @ 99.9¢ | $254.0k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Wild vs. Red Wings | MED BUY Wild @ 56¢ | $75.1k | called |
| Penguins vs. Utah | MED BUY Utah @ 59¢ | $101.3k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $64.5k | excluded |
| Flames vs. Ducks | MED BUY Flames @ 38¢ | $89.9k | excluded |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | MED BUY Sabres @ 31¢ | $88.4k | excluded |
| Devils vs. Penguins | MED BUY Devils @ 42¢ | $145.3k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Panthers @ 38¢ | $48.0k | missed |
| Kings vs. Golden Knights | MED BUY Golden Knights @ 55¢ | $131.7k | called |
| Kings vs. Golden Knights | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 57¢ | $34.7k | called |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Sabres @ 46¢ | $39.5k | excluded |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Sabres @ 35¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | MED BUY Sabres @ 37¢ | $56.0k | missed |
| Kraken vs. Ducks | MED BUY Ducks @ 56¢ | $108.7k | called |
| Kings vs. Hurricanes | MED BUY Kings @ 39¢ | $109.1k | missed |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev | MED BUY Zverev @ 18¢ | $72.6k | excluded |
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