← Wallets
−$1,983No · avg 80¢ → 46¢ · $2,650
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.3 wins, so it did -18.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-18.7 pts
Called / graded
2/7
Expected from price
3.3
Flagged volume
$636.6k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$87k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? at 82¢) and the edge is -24.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 11% · n=2
20–40¢
0% vs 21% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 52% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 64% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 86% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$15.2k
Last 30 days −$349 · $14.67M volume · 16,291 trades · since Oct 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$32.6k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$1,983
Closed-position win rate
56%
344 closed
Wallet age · markets
367d
299 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 3 | 0 | 0.4 | -14.6 pts |
| Other | 4 | 2 | 2.9 | -21.8 pts |
History
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x33e073440d9ac43e2e190e910f0b02b2fbd17d46"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x33e073440d9ac43e2e190e910f0b02b2fbd17d46.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x33e073…