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What this means. A wallet put $67.6k on not No, at a price that gave it a 22% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$67.6k
SELL No @ 78¢ · 86,694 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)2.8× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet tgrdy took No (sell) for $67.6k at an average 78¢. At that price the market implied a 22% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $67.6k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 78¢
- Implied odds
- 22.0%
- Size
- $67.6k
- Placed
- Jan 13, 11:10 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- tgrdy
- Tx
- 0x621cbfb7…
This wallet's graded record
2/7-18.7 pts
expected 3.3 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $34.0k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | HIGH SELL No @ 82¢ | $319.4k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $35.4k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.3k | excluded |