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What this means. A wallet put $15.2k on not No, at a price that gave it a 25% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.2k
SELL No @ 75¢ · 20,253 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet tgrdy took No (sell) for $15.2k at an average 75¢. At that price the market implied a 25% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.2k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 75¢
- Implied odds
- 25.0%
- Size
- $15.2k
- Placed
- Jan 21, 14:14 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- tgrdy
- Tx
- 0x3961ffdd…
This wallet's graded record
2/7-18.7 pts
expected 3.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -25 ptsNo price · entry 75¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $98.4k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |