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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +3.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -6.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.4 pts
Called / graded
4/7
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$594.5k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$22k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? at 41¢) and the edge is -6.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 34% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 48% · n=2
60–80¢
67% vs 71% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.47M
Last 30 days +$0 · $73.15M volume · 41,069 trades · since Oct 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$17.33M
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$170.6k
Closed-position win rate
93%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
363d
845 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 4 | 3.8 | +3.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Saint Denis @ 76¢ | $77.7k | called |
 Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | MED BUY PARIVISION @ 51¢ | $104.1k | excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? | MED BUY No @ 41¢ | $67.4k | called |
 LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | LOW BUY Anyones Legend @ 75¢ | $45.0k | called |
 Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 56¢ | $78.6k | called |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 35¢ | $147.4k 2.0× usual |
missed |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $29.9k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 32¢ | $44.5k | missed |
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