Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$10
Return on staked
-1.4%
Bets
4/7 won
Edge vs price
+3.4 pts ±17.7
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 22, 15:44 ESTJan 31, 09:21 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) | 76¢ | called | 266d ago |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? | 41¢ | called | 269d ago |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | 75¢ | called | 270d ago |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | 56¢ | called | 272d ago |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | 35¢ | missed | 272d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? | 62¢ | missed | 272d ago |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | 32¢ | missed | 275d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.