← Wallets
−$6,785No · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $160.7k+$2,766No · avg 89¢ → 96.6¢ · $35.6k+$1,083No · avg 92¢ → 97.7¢ · $18.6k+$234Yes · avg 93¢ → 94.5¢ · $14.7k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$117No · avg 96.3¢ → 95.2¢ · $9,659+$45Yes · avg 97.5¢ → 98.6¢ · $4,194
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 6.0 wins, so it did +0.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -0.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+0.1 pts
Called / graded
6/7
Expected from price
6.0
Flagged volume
$6.49M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$22k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? at 95¢) and the edge is -0.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 26% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 96% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$381.5k
Last 30 days −$10.9k · $47.59M volume · 13,575 trades · since Jul 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$384.7k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$2,774
Closed-position win rate
77%
301 closed
Wallet age · markets
825d
277 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 6 | 5 | 5.0 | -0.7 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.5 pts |
History
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