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+$641No · avg 93¢ → 97.8¢ · $13.2k+$222No · avg 70¢ → 78¢ · $2,209+$15No · avg 92¢ → 95.7¢ · $383−$23No · avg 91.1¢ → 82¢ · $196 · 1 proven with, 0 against−$903Yes · avg 48¢ → 8.5¢ · $195−$151Yes · avg 6.8¢ → 3.4¢ · $146+$1No · avg 94.7¢ → 97.5¢ · $40+$4No · avg 73¢ → 90.5¢ · $20
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+3.3 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$2.58M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$179.9k
Last 30 days −$1,545 · $7.19M volume · 2,794 trades · since Aug 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$184.7k
Open P&L · 16 positions
−$5,109
Closed-position win rate
82%
260 closed
Wallet age · markets
804d
269 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $46.5k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $40.3k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | MED BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $1.77M 36.4× usual |
excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢ | $62.9k | called |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $150.8k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $25.3k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 92¢ | $297.0k 6.1× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $50.6k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $90.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $20.6k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 90¢ | $14.6k | missed |
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