Weekly report card
Week 2026-06
Feb 02, 00:00 EST – Feb 08, 23:59 EST · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-2.7 pts
Called
120/241
Expected from price
126.5
Std. error
±3.1
In week 2026-06, 241 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 120 times; entry prices implied 126.5. Whales did no better than the price (-2.7 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 179 | 88 | 91.9 | -2.2 pts |
| Other | 50 | 26 | 28.1 | -4.2 pts |
| Crypto | 7 | 5 | 3.4 | +22.7 pts |
| Politics | 5 | 1 | 3.2 | -43.7 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
called262d ago
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
BUYYes@ 18¢→Yes
$12.0k · failstoberimplied 18%
called264d ago
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2?
SELLNo@ 76¢→Yes
$16.2k · 0x1f55…e9a4implied 24%
called263d ago
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?
SELLNo@ 61¢→Yes
$11.2k · Maksimenkovimplied 39%
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | HIGH BUY Seahawks @ 69¢ | $1.67M 2.6× usual |
called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $646.6k | called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $479.0k 2.4× usual |
missed |
 Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $370.2k 4.3× usual |
called |
 Spread: Thunder (-4.5) | HIGH BUY Thunder @ 47¢ | $317.6k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $294.9k 7.6× usual |
called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | HIGH BUY Seahawks @ 51¢ | $263.9k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $192.0k 3.1× usual |
missed |
 Panthers vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 63¢ | $188.3k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $170.0k 5.6× usual |
called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $164.3k 4.2× usual |
called |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | MED BUY Clippers @ 50¢ | $161.4k 3.8× usual |
missed |
 Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY No @ 75¢ | $158.6k | called |
| Bruins vs. Panthers | MED BUY Panthers @ 55¢ | $152.4k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $145.6k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $143.8k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $141.2k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Kings vs. Golden Knights | MED BUY Golden Knights @ 55¢ | $131.7k | called |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $128.0k | called |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $116.1k | called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $114.0k | missed |
 Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | MED BUY Vitality @ 75¢ | $112.5k 3.6× usual |
called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $111.9k | called |
| Kraken vs. Ducks | MED BUY Ducks @ 56¢ | $108.7k | called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Seahawks @ 50¢ | $108.6k | called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 51¢ | $104.1k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Seahawks @ 69¢ | $100.6k | called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 51¢ | $100.0k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 51¢ | $99.7k 3.8× usual |
called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $97.8k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 51¢ | $95.9k | missed |
| Predators vs. Capitals | MED BUY Capitals @ 60¢ | $91.4k | called |
| Maple Leafs vs. Flames | MED BUY Maple Leafs @ 52¢ | $86.7k 4.0× usual |
called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $85.0k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Maple Leafs vs. Flames | LOW BUY Flames @ 48¢ | $79.3k | missed |
| Kings vs. Golden Knights | MED BUY Kings @ 45¢ | $76.7k | missed |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 67¢ | $72.5k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $66.9k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $65.4k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-4.5) | MED BUY Thunder @ 47¢ | $65.1k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 50¢ | $65.0k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 67¢ | $65.0k | called |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs | LOW BUY Aurora Gaming @ 35¢ | $64.9k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $64.8k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $64.0k 3.7× usual |
missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $64.0k | missed |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 68¢ | $61.5k | missed |
| Predators vs. Capitals | MED BUY Capitals @ 62¢ | $60.1k | called |
| Predators vs. Capitals | MED BUY Predators @ 40¢ | $60.0k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-4.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 49¢ | $58.6k | called |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Sabres @ 38¢ | $58.2k | missed |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | MED BUY Sabres @ 37¢ | $56.0k | missed |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | LOW BUY Vitality @ 74¢ | $54.0k | called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 51¢ | $51.0k | called |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 64¢ | $51.0k | called |
 Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $50.9k | called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $50.7k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 51¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs | LOW BUY MOUZ @ 62¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Panthers @ 38¢ | $48.0k | missed |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 63¢ | $46.5k | called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $45.5k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $45.0k | missed |
| Kraken vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Kraken @ 45¢ | $42.6k | missed |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Lightning @ 63¢ | $42.5k | called |
| Kraken vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Kraken @ 45¢ | $42.3k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $41.7k | missed |
 LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana | MED BUY LGD Gaming @ 54¢ | $41.2k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $39.6k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 33¢ | $39.6k | missed |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs | LOW BUY G2 @ 39¢ | $39.0k | missed |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 32¢ | $38.0k | called |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY No @ 58¢ | $37.1k | missed |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Lightning @ 63¢ | $35.0k | called |
| Kings vs. Golden Knights | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 57¢ | $34.7k | called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 33¢ | $34.0k | missed |
| Maple Leafs vs. Flames | LOW BUY Flames @ 48¢ | $33.6k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 67¢ | $33.5k | called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 69¢ | $32.7k | called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $32.2k | called |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 49¢ | $32.0k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $32.0k | missed |
| Bruins vs. Panthers | MED BUY Bruins @ 44¢ | $31.9k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $31.4k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $31.3k | missed |
| Predators vs. Capitals | LOW BUY Predators @ 40¢ | $31.1k | missed |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B | LOW BUY Vitality @ 76¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Kings vs. Golden Knights | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 57¢ | $28.2k | called |
| Predators vs. Capitals | LOW BUY Predators @ 39¢ | $27.5k | missed |
| Kraken vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Ducks @ 55¢ | $27.5k | called |
| Kraken vs. Ducks | MED BUY Ducks @ 55¢ | $27.3k | called |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 65¢ | $26.7k | called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $26.0k | missed |
| Maple Leafs vs. Flames | LOW BUY Maple Leafs @ 52¢ | $25.5k | called |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 51¢ | $25.0k | called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 69¢ | $25.0k | called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $25.0k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $25.0k | missed |
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?calledBUY Yes @ 68¢$128.0k
MED 0xae55…0f4b · 258d ago
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?calledBUY Yes @ 68¢$116.1k
MED 0xae55…0f4b · 258d ago
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