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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 4.6 wins, so it did -16.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-16.5 pts
Called / graded
3/10
Expected from price
4.6
Flagged volume
$3.11M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$466k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Warriors vs. Pelicans at 47¢) and the edge is -24.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 34% · n=3
40–60¢
20% vs 48% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 62% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$4.53M
Last 30 days +$0 · $185.49M volume · 122,803 trades · since Jan 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$40.19M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$25.37M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
292d
4549 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 3 | 4.6 | -16.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | HIGH BUY No @ 35¢ | $272.3k 5.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? | MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $183.5k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $152.7k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
 Devils vs. Penguins | LOW BUY Penguins @ 58¢ | $21.2k | excluded |
 Rockets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 43¢ | $14.2k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 47¢ | $18.1k | called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $27.8k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | HIGH BUY No @ 31¢ | $208.6k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
 Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? | HIGH BUY No @ 54¢ | $698.6k 13.4× usual |
excluded |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Lightning @ 63¢ | $42.5k | called |
| Predators vs. Capitals | LOW BUY Predators @ 38¢ | $13.8k | missed |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 63¢ | $161.0k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Lightning @ 62¢ | $16.8k | called |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? | HIGH BUY No @ 41¢ | $304.9k 5.9× usual |
excluded |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $45.5k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $143.8k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? | MED BUY No @ 36¢ | $120.8k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $97.8k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $141.2k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $65.4k | missed |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | MED BUY Rams @ 44¢ | $38.5k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 48¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED BUY Patriots @ 65¢ | $38.4k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED BUY Patriots @ 51¢ | $45.0k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 58¢ | $58.7k | excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | HIGH BUY Broncos @ 34¢ | $132.9k 2.6× usual |
missed |
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