Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$467
Return on staked
-46.7%
Bets
3/10 won
Edge vs price
-16.5 pts ±15.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -42.4 pts (0/5). Newer half: +9.4 pts (3/5).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 27, 12:19 ESTFeb 26, 18:00 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rockets vs. Magic | 43¢ | missed | 239d ago |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | 47¢ | called | 242d ago |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | 63¢ | called | 260d ago |
| Predators vs. Capitals | 38¢ | missed | 261d ago |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | 62¢ | called | 262d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | 32¢ | missed | 266d ago |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 49¢ | missed | 268d ago |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 49¢ | missed | 269d ago |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 50¢ | missed | 270d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | 32¢ | missed | 270d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.