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What this means. A wallet put $208.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 31% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$208.6k
BUY No @ 31¢ · 675,590 shares in 11 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side11 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)4× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet 432614799197 took No (buy) for $208.6k at an average 31¢. At that price the market implied a 31% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $208.6k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
11 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 31¢ means
31%chance the market gave
+224American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 31¢
- Implied odds
- 30.9%
- As American odds
- +224 no vig
- Size
- $208.6k
- Placed
- Feb 22, 11:28 EST
- Market close
- Feb 22, 11:30 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 432614799197
- Tx
- 0x68f07c8e…
This wallet's graded record
3/10-16.5 pts
expected 4.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -31 ptsNo price · entry 31¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.5k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $41.6k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $11.3k | excluded |