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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +2.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -5.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+2.9 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$215.2k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$13k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Heat vs. 76ers at 55¢) and the edge is -5.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
33% vs 52% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 72% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 82% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$200.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $78.56M volume · 151,307 trades · since Oct 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.93M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
749d
5713 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -15.4 pts |
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.7 | +10.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +18.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $14.2k | called |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $14.6k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 94.2¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
 Heat vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 55¢ | $12.1k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 65¢ | $19.1k | called |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | MED SELL Pistons @ 78¢ | $27.9k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 72¢ | $29.4k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 69¢ | $13.5k | called |
 Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? | LOW SELL No @ 28¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
 Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $25.0k | missed |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev | LOW SELL Zverev @ 72¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
 Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $12.0k | called |
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