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+$3,569Yes · avg 12¢ → 24¢ · $7,569−$704Yes · avg 4.2¢ → 1.8¢ · $503
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +48.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +40.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+48.0 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$218.3k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$165k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Nuggets vs. Spurs at 21¢) and the edge is +40.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
80% vs 32% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$31.7k
Last 30 days −$6,302 · $12.14M volume · 2,722 trades · since Feb 08, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$194.7k
Open P&L · 70 positions
−$261.2k
Closed-position win rate
49%
141 closed
Wallet age · markets
622d
211 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 4 | 1.6 | +48.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 55¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 36¢ | $11.7k | called |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢ | $12.6k | called |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢ | $51.3k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 27¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Sean Strickland @ 66¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $27.3k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Spurs @ 79¢ | $14.4k | called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $25.0k | missed |
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