← Wallets
−$427Yes · avg 24¢ → 3.5¢ · $72
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -10.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-10.4 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$236.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$8,326
Last 30 days −$65 · $4.45M volume · 452 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$70.0k
Open P&L · 43 positions
−$61.4k
Closed-position win rate
25%
59 closed
Wallet age · markets
272d
97 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.2 | -10.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW SELL No @ 75¢ | $15.0k | missed |
 Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $50.9k | called |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $48.8k | excluded |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | MED SELL No @ 60¢ | $36.1k | called |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | MED SELL No @ 49¢ | $36.7k | called |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | MED BUY No @ 22¢ | $49.2k | missed |
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