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+$3,545Yes · avg 19¢ → 24¢ · $19.3k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.5 wins, so it did +6.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -0.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.8 pts
Called / graded
4/7
Expected from price
3.5
Flagged volume
$414.2k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$2k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers at 49¢) and the edge is -0.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 16% · n=1
40–60¢
50% vs 51% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 66% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$398.3k
Last 30 days +$85.0k · $33.94M volume · 42,264 trades · since Dec 02, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$5.92M
Open P&L · 2 positions
+$1,178
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
326d
1447 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 4 | 3.5 | +6.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Counter-Strike: BIG vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Private Club Playoffs | LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 54¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
 Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 50¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
 Bengals vs. Texans | LOW SELL Bengals @ 42¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Bengals vs. Texans | LOW BUY Bengals @ 42¢ | $10.5k | called |
 LSU vs. Ole Miss | LOW BUY LSU @ 57¢ | $71.9k 4.5× usual |
excluded |
 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 53¢ | $21.2k | called |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $32.2k 2.0× usual |
missed |
 Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | LOW SELL No @ 27¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 2.6¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
 Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 1.8¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 54¢ | $18.8k | missed |
 Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres | LOW SELL Philadelphia Phillies @ 53¢ | $11.7k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 86¢ | $86.0k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers | LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 49¢ | $14.2k | called |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $50.7k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Patriots @ 65¢ | $13.0k | called |
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