Weekly report card
Week 2026-07
Feb 09, 00:00 EST – Feb 15, 23:59 EST · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-16.5 pts
Called
23/51
Expected from price
31.4
Std. error
±6.0
In week 2026-07, 51 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 23 times; entry prices implied 31.4. Whales did no better than the price (-16.5 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 27 | 16 | 15.3 | +2.4 pts |
| Other | 24 | 7 | 16.0 | -37.7 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $90.0k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $86.9k | called |
 LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Top Esports @ 78¢ | $83.7k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $68.0k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Spurs @ 69¢ | $54.3k | called |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $48.9k | missed |
 Government shutdown on Saturday? | MED SELL No @ 72¢ | $45.9k | missed |
| Spread: Rockets (-7.5) | MED BUY Clippers @ 48¢ | $45.9k | called |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $45.7k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $40.0k | missed |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Top Esports @ 79¢ | $39.5k | called |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | MED SELL No @ 81¢ | $37.6k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $34.0k | missed |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Top Esports @ 79¢ | $31.7k | called |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | MED BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $27.2k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $26.4k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ | $20.5k | missed |
| Spread: Rockets (-7.5) | LOW BUY Clippers @ 44¢ | $20.2k | called |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $19.9k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $19.3k | called |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96.8¢ | $18.3k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $17.8k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95.1¢ | $17.7k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢ | $17.1k | called |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW SELL No @ 72¢ | $16.3k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW SELL Warriors @ 32¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 69¢ | $15.1k | called |
| Spread: Rockets (-7.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 53¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW SELL No @ 75¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $14.7k | called |
 US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90.8¢ | $14.5k | called |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $13.3k | called |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 64¢ | $13.1k | called |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW SELL No @ 86¢ | $12.9k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW SELL No @ 62¢ | $12.9k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $12.7k | called |
| Spread: Rockets (-7.5) | LOW BUY Clippers @ 48¢ | $12.2k | called |
| Spread: Rockets (-7.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 53¢ | $11.9k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $11.6k | called |
| Spread: Rockets (-7.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 52¢ | $11.2k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW SELL Yes @ 70¢ | $11.1k | called |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 64¢ | $11.1k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $11.0k | called |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $10.9k | called |
 Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $10.7k | missed |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $10.2k | missed |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 63¢ | $10.2k | missed |
| LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 63¢ | $10.0k | called |
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