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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.2 wins, so it did -31.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-31.7 pts
Called / graded
1/7
Expected from price
3.2
Flagged volume
$356.0k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$82k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals at 79¢) and the edge is -40.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 20% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 35% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 47% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 79% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$657.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $46.82M volume · 39,962 trades · since Oct 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$9.13M
Open P&L · 49 positions
−$847.5k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
369d
1267 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 1 | 3.0 | -33.7 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -19.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Top Esports @ 79¢ | $39.5k | called |
 Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 50¢ | $19.0k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW SELL Patriots @ 31¢ | $12.4k | called |
 Maple Leafs vs. Flames | LOW BUY Flames @ 49¢ | $56.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | MED SELL Seahawks @ 68¢ | $40.8k | missed |
| Kings vs. Hurricanes | LOW SELL Hurricanes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Rangers vs. Islanders | LOW BUY Rangers @ 46¢ | $27.6k | missed |
 Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 53¢ | $32.5k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | MED BUY Rams @ 45¢ | $41.9k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 35¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Rams @ 42¢ | $12.1k | missed |
 Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $12.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x68dd62…