Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$573
Return on staked
-81.9%
Bets
1/7 won
Edge vs price
-31.7 pts ±17.8
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Dec 17, 13:31 ESTFeb 08, 22:36 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | 79¢ | called | 257d ago |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 50¢ | missed | 257d ago |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | 50¢ | missed | 258d ago |
| Rangers vs. Islanders | 46¢ | missed | 268d ago |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | 35¢ | missed | 271d ago |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | 42¢ | missed | 276d ago |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | 20¢ | missed | 310d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.