0xa18d…f38c

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -96.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$276Yes · avg 51¢ → 76¢ · $847

Price-adjusted edge

-96.8 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$108.0k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$10.8k

Last 30 days +$455 · $1.27M volume · 1,405 trades · since Jul 22, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$16.2k

Open P&L · 31 positions

−$26.9k

Closed-position win rate

78%

390 closed

Wallet age · markets

459d

399 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	1.0	-96.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Government shutdown on Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.8¢	$18.3k	97%	253d ago	missed
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢	$14.3k	68%	257d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$17.5k	0%	270d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢	$15.0k	97%	271d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99¢	$21.6k	1%	273d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢	$21.3k	98%	274d ago	excluded

Government shutdown on Saturday?missed

BUY Yes @ 96.8¢$18.3k

LOW 0xa18d…f38c · 253d ago

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 68¢$14.3k

LOW 0xa18d…f38c · 257d ago

US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$17.5k

LOW 0xa18d…f38c · 270d ago

US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 97.3¢$15.0k

LOW 0xa18d…f38c · 271d ago

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99¢$21.6k

LOW 0xa18d…f38c · 273d ago

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 97.8¢$21.3k

LOW 0xa18d…f38c · 274d ago

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