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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +23.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+23.3 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$88.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±42.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$113.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.81M volume · 450 trades · since Nov 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$100.3k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$12.8k
Closed-position win rate
55%
42 closed
Wallet age · markets
353d
42 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +23.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 91.9¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
 Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $14.7k | called |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 95¢ | $22.8k | missed |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $31.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x91f5fb…